🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Profited $436,000 from Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the event. Market Movement in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January increased in the hours before Donald Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been seized. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. However the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in positions immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also made large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are growing concerned. A bill put forward on Monday aims to prohibit public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting industry. A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."